Senator Mitch McConnell is likely one of the most essential People of the twenty-first Century. However for his management, I’m moderately assured that President Obama would have been capable of fill Justice Scalia’s seat. And had Donald Trump not been capable of run on filling that emptiness, I’m moderately assured that Hillary Clinton would have prevailed. After which Clinton would have promptly changed Justice Ginsburg, and perhaps even Justices Kennedy or Sotomayor. Our nation would look very completely different if Clinton served for 2 phrases with a 5-4 or a 6-3 Supreme Court docket majority behind her.
Again to actuality. Justice Gorsuch is sitting in Justice Scalia’s seat. Justices Kavanaugh and Barrett changed Justices Kennedy and Ginsburg. President Trump prevailed in 2016 and in 2024. And the Court docket’s usually-conservative majority will seemingly endure for a era. And Senator McConnell can take a number of that credit score.
That background brings me to an essential essay by Mike Fragoso, who served as McConnell’s Chief Counsel, after serving as Chief Counsel on the Senate Judiciary Committee. Fragoso, who just lately joined the EPPC, is likely one of the most astute observers in regards to the judiciary. I’ve lengthy admired his work. Furthermore, he brings inside insights from his expertise.
Fragoso’s newest piece is titled “In Protection of Amy Coney Barrett: Why She Was Nominated to the Supreme Court docket.” The subtitle is “Republicans could not have stuffed the seat with out Justice Barrett. Mitch McConnell knew this, and for that motive insisted that she wanted to be the nominee.” Fragoso makes a number of essential factors.
First, Fragoso argues that Trump had to select a lady to switch Justice Ginsburg:
The primary difficulty was defensive politics, which dictated that the choose wanted to be a lady. As a political matter it could have been untenable to switch Justice Ginsburg with a person. With an election mere months away, and college-educated ladies being a dependable and more and more progressive voting bloc, subjecting them to the indignity of changing “the Infamous RBG” with a person would have additional radicalized them. This was a political actuality that President Trump had lengthy understood—he was, in any case, extensively reported to have needed a lady obtainable to switch Ginsburg within the occasion a emptiness arose throughout his presidency. . . .
This is not what a few of Barrett’s critics name—ridiculously—”DEI”; it is politics. Barrett was a extremely enticing candidate to a specific, essential constituency of the Republican coalition—non secular ladies—who have been prepared and prepared to make their voices heard to wavering senators.
I agree with Fragoso that the nominee needed to be a lady. This form of desire shouldn’t be new. President Reagan pledged to appoint a lady to the Supreme Court docket, and his nominee was Sandra Day O’Connor. After John Roberts’s nomination was elevated to the Chief Justice seat, President George W. Bush dedicated to appoint a lady to switch Justice O’Connor, and he chosen Harriet Miers. President Biden dedicated to nominating a black girl for the Supreme Court docket, and he nominated Decide Ketanji Brown Jackson. Within the previous days, there was a Supreme Court docket seat reserved for a Catholic. And even earlier, seats have been reserved for northerners and southerners. I see nothing novel a few President making politics calculations, broadly outlined, when making a Supreme Court docket nomination.
I additionally agree, as a sensible level, that Trump needed to choose a lady to switch RBG in 2020. It’s no shock that the one two nominees mentioned have been Barrett and Decide Barbara Lagoa of the eleventh Circuit. Decide Neomi Rao was apparently not a part of that conversation–a matter for an additional time.
Optics matter for Supreme Court docket nominees–especially for President Trump. Trump repeatedly boasted that Neil Gorsuch got here out of “central casting.” (Trump by no means stated that about Kavanaugh.) Barrett is photogenic, charismatic, and would attraction to a large swath of the conservative base shortly earlier than the election. It isn’t shocking why he would have picked her.
Second, Fragoso says that Barrett was simpler to substantiate resulting from the truth that her document was thinner:
On the identical time, the Judiciary Committee fights over and critiques their paperwork—opinions, speeches, briefs, public-service work merchandise. With a view to get this carried out in a month we wanted a nominee who wouldn’t require a lot preparation herself and who did not have a voluminous document with which to bathroom down the Senate in procedural fights.
Barrett had a manageable document. She had been a decide for round three years, which offered a longtime however digestible document. (As my workers advised me on the time, it helped that she was a wonderfully clear author.) Her earlier service as a professor additionally meant that her prior profession was not burdened with numerous authorized briefs or interminable executive-branch work emails. At one level, when Democrats complained that they needed paperwork from Notre Dame, I requested in the event that they actually anticipated me to ask for the minutes of the school parking committee.
There may be a lot to unpack in these few sentences. Fragoso writes that Barrett didn’t have a “voluminous document.” He is proper! She had solely been a decide “for round three years” giving her a “digestible document.” He is proper! Her document was not “burdened with numerous authorized briefs.” He is proper! Fragoso is completely appropriate that these attributes have been useful to promptly affirm a nominee. However her lack of a document demonstrates why she ought to have by no means been added to the brief checklist within the first place. The aim of a document is to display what an individual was prepared to publicly do with their career. Barrett merely didn’t do very a lot. Critics have been incensed once I wrote about how skinny her document was. But Fragoso confirms there simply wasn’t a lot there. Perhaps she selected to spend her time doing different issues. That was definitely her alternative. However these different issues didn’t create a bona fide document for being a federal decide. What number of Supreme Court docket clerks, who grew to become regulation professors, obtain Article III commissions. The quantity may be very, very small. Once more, Barrett was added to the brief checklist earlier than she determined a single case. And that was primarily based on a restricted document, with no related authorized briefs, and few writings on issues of public controversy.
In September 2015, Randy Barnett and I wrote an article in The Weekly Normal, titled The Subsequent Justices: A information for GOP candidates on the best way to fill Court docket vacancies. The second rule we provided was that “Paper trails are an asset, not a disqualification.” Fragoso could also be proper that having a smaller paper path made her simpler to substantiate. However that shouldn’t be a marker of a robust judicial candidate. Question if Justice Alito had stepped down in June 2019, and there was ample time to substantiate somebody earlier than the election. Would Barrett have nonetheless been the nom?
Fragoso mocks those that thinks Barrett is the “second coming of David Souter.” Not fairly. I believe Justice O’Connor can be a a lot nearer facsimile in fashionable historical past, although Justice Frankfurter is an in depth second.
In June 2018, Senator McConnell signaled that he most well-liked Decide Thapar to switch Justice Kennedy over then-Decide Kavanaugh, partially, as a result of Thapar had a better document to parse. The New York Instances reported on the time:
Whereas cautious to not immediately make the case for any would-be justice, Mr. McConnell made clear in a number of cellphone calls with Mr. Trump and the White Home counsel, Donald F. McGahn II, that the prolonged paper path of one other prime contender, Decide Brett M. Kavanaugh, would pose difficulties for his affirmation.
Mr. McConnell is worried in regards to the quantity of the paperwork that Decide Kavanaugh has created in his 12 years on america Court docket of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, in addition to in his roles as White Home workers secretary beneath President George W. Bush and assistant to Kenneth W. Starr, the impartial counsel who investigated President Invoice Clinton.
The variety of pages is claimed to run into the hundreds of thousands, which Mr. McConnell fears may hand Senate Democrats a possibility to delay the affirmation vote till after the brand new session of the court docket begins in October, with the midterm elections looming the following month. And whereas Decide Kavanaugh’s judicial opinions are publicly recognized, Mr. McConnell is uneasy about relitigating Bush-era controversies, the officers briefed on his discussions with Mr. Trump stated.
With Senator John McCain’s absence due to mind most cancers, Republicans have simply 50 votes, and Mr. McConnell doesn’t need to draw the ire of his libertarian-leaning Kentucky colleague, Senator Rand Paul, who opposed hawkish Bush insurance policies. Aides to Mr. Trump and Mr. McConnell declined requests for remark.
Mr. McConnell is equally cautious of imperiling the votes of two average Republicans, Senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine. He has advised Mr. Trump he may lose the 2 senators, who assist abortion rights, if he picks one other decide seen as a contender, Amy Coney Barrett, an outspoken social conservative who some observers imagine could also be extra open to overturning Roe v. Wade.
McConnell was proper about Kavanaugh. Earlier than any of us had ever heard of Christine Blasey Ford, the largest difficulty with Kavanaugh was his paper path within the Bush White Home. Does anybody even keep in mind Corey Booker’s Spartacus Second? Then once more, Barrett was apparently into account, and McConnell thought she can be more durable to substantiate. McConnell nervous that Murkowksi and Collins wouldn’t vote for Barrett in 2018. In 2020, Murkowski voted for Barrett, however Collins didn’t. Collins stated she objected to the timing of the nominee earlier than the election. I believe Collins would have vote for Barrett in 2019, however who is aware of. Nonetheless, why was Barrett even within the operating for the Kennedy seat? In June 2018, Barrett had been a decide for barely a year–proof once more that her lack of a document was seen as a professional and never a con. The cake was baked for her as quickly as she was nominated to the Seventh Circuit.
Third, Fragoso speaks to the “dogma” incident.
The second difficulty was offensive politics. Ever for the reason that late Senator Dianne Feinstein had advised then-Professor Barrett, “The dogma lives loudly inside you,” Barrett had been a people hero amongst Catholic Republicans and social conservatives. Nearly each Catholic within the D.C. space had a “dogma” mug. A nominee with a longtime, impartial political model was manna from heaven when it comes to producing assist for a snap affirmation amongst probably squeamish Republicans.
Did each Catholic in D.C. actually have a “dogma” mug? I’ve solely ever seen a handful of them. In candor, I believe this story has change into one thing of an city legend. I wrote in regards to the Feinstein trade right here:
I went again and rewatched the entire clip on CSPAN. After Feinstein stated it, Barrett form of stared blankly in incredulity at Feinstein, and the colloquy ended. Barrett by no means truly stated something in response. Feinstein pivoted to ask some query of Decide Joan Larsen. I do know this “dogma” line made Barrett one thing of a mini-celebrity, however I by no means fairly understood why. This isn’t like Clarence Thomas and Joe Biden going toe-to-toe. Furthermore, Feinstein on the time was affected by senility. (It’s no coincidence that senile and Senate share the identical root.) Feinstein made an totally inappropriate assertion that was universally panned. And Barrett was simply confirmed.
The clean look that Barrett gave to Feinstein jogged my memory of the face she made after shaking Trump’s hand on the State of the Union. This was not the visage of a cool operator. This was the visceral response of an individual who did not know what to do, and momentarily forgot she was on digital camera.
Fragoso concludes:
Republicans could not have stuffed the seat with out Barrett. McConnell knew this, and for that motive insisted that she wanted to be the nominee. With out Amy Coney Barrett, whoever Biden would have put in that seat would have made Ruth Bader Ginsburg seem like Robert Bork.
I might not presume to second-guess McConnell’s vote counts of his personal caucus. As soon as Ginsburg died, it was going to be Barrett. Perhaps one of the best protection of Justice Barrett is that nobody else may have been confirmed in that window, and it was higher to have a Justice Barrett than an empty seat that might be Biden. And with the good thing about hindsight, with all of the tumult after the 2020 election, it could have been very troublesome to substantiate anybody. However that isn’t a lot of a protection of Barrett’s nomination on the deserves. That protection can solely be made primarily based on her document for the time being she was added to the Supreme Court docket brief checklist.
My objection right this moment, because it has at all times been, was that Barrett ought to haven’t been appointed as a Circuit Decide together with her admittedly skinny document, and mustn’t have been positioned on the brief checklist earlier than she determined a case. Barrett had her backers who vigorously pushed and promoted her primarily based on the “belief me” promise. We actually haven’t discovered a lot since folks stated “belief me” about John Roberts. We can not belief supporters of any judicial nominee. The response have to be, show it.
